The decade began with violence. Not unlike the violence that has characterized the past two decades of unending American military involvement in the Middle East. But this move signified and escalation, one that promises renewed violence and political and humanitarian turmoil. Much to the shock and panic of international allies, adversaries and American citizens alike, President Trump assassinated the General of Iranian Quds forces, Qasem Soleimani, in a drone strike on Iraqi soil. This action escalates what had been a series of minor and mostly non-fatal strikes between Iran and the US to outright hostile action. As much as the strike shocks and scares our people, it is far from out of nowhere. In fact it is completely predictable if we look at the pattern of behavior this administration has shown in relation to Iran.
First we must acknowledge the stated justification for this attack, and recognize the fact that General Soleimani was responsible for attacks and aggression against the US, as well as the casualties of hundreds of US allies in Syria and Saudi Arabia. This has been the case for years, yet none of President Trump’s predecessors took the same action, which was certainly available to them. That is because both President Obama and Bush had elected to take the route of de escalation and negotiations for peace with Iran. Better relations with Iran have helped the US interests in the area including fighting ISIS and stabilizing Iraq. That is a route which Trump has decidedly rejected from the beginning of his administration, despite recent gains that had made peace much more attainable. And as a result our country’s position has been weakened throughout the Middle East and our people put at risk.
From the beginning of his Presidency, and in fact his campaign promises to undo the entirety of Obama’s Presidency, Trump has taken a 180 on America’s approach to Iran. One of his very first actions was the unilateral decision to pull out of the Iran Nuclear deal, which had been negotiated and signed onto with UN Security Council, and approved by congress. The deal, which had long been a cudgel for Republicans to beat of Obama’s reputation, had international support. While not perfect, it had eased tensions in the region and successfully halted Iran’s nuclear weapons program. Every international and third-party watchdog organization had agreed that Iran was complying with restrictions set by the deal. In return they had been allowed into the oil market without sanctions, which helped the Iranian economy and people who were suffering from food shortages and unemployment. The deal served both countries’ interests and improved relations. Still Donald Trump pulled out of the deal, insisting he could negotiate a better one, but made no real attempts to do so.
We might also add the pulling out of the deal raised oil prices, from $22-$30 a barrels to $80-$90 a barrel. Higher oil prices hurt US consumers directly, and the sanctions hurt Iran who could not sell their oil on the international market. However the higher prices help Russia, who provides oil to most Eastern Europe. As a close ally to Iran and economic and political antagonist to the US, Russia benefits from higher tensions between the two countries to keep Iran dependent on their economic and military relationship.
Pulling out of the nuclear deal set off a new round of tensions and skirmishes between the US and Iran, with other nations caught in the crossfire. Of course following it’s pulling out of the Nuclear Deal the US imposed a new round of energy sanctions in the following months. This made an especially awkward situation as allies like France, Germany and Britain remained in the deal and had open trade with Iran. This both lessened the impact of sanctions and hurt the economies of all countries involved, as well as US relations with those allies. It was then also Trump’s decision to label the Iranian Islamnic Revolutionary Guard a terrorist organization in 2019, against the advice of Pentagon officials. So when he and his cronies justify the killing of Soleimani by saying he was the head of a terrorist organization, it is he that deemed them terrorists to begin with. Then the attacks begin. In the Summer of 2019 a series of oil tankers were attacked or taken hostage, and the US blamed Iran. It is also that Summer which Iran announced it was no longer abiding by the nixed Nuclear Deal and it exceeded the amount of enriched uranium allowed by the deal. Iran shot down American drones, America shot down Iranian drones, an Iranian oil tanker is seized by Britain and then a British oil tanker is seized by Iran. These are all escalations resulting from the US “Maximum Pressure” campaign against Iran. The campaign was designed to hurt Iranian economy and deter offensive action, but with no clear reasoning or long-term goals to speak of. If the idea was to reach a new nuclear deal, no such negotiations were even suggested, and military action it sought to deter was non-existent under the previous nuclear deal. This campaign had the reluctant approval of US allies, but no active support, making it less effective, because it clearly endangered our allies and our own military and personnel in the region. British oil tankers were seized and a US embassy attacked as a result of this action that the US took on its own, with no discussion or coordination with regional allies. In that time peace was the goal, and so both nations held avoided outright offensive action. After the deal ended, war became the inevitability, so both nations ratcheted up their offenses, while trying to find justifications and avoid taking too large a leap as to be the instigators of war.
Then Donald Trump launched an attack on allied Iraqi soil to assassinate an official Iranian leader. Not just an Iranian official, the General of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps foreign forces, like a General and Secretary of Defense in one position. In addition he was a tremendous cultural icon to the Iranian people. This act is by all accounts (except for the President’s) a declaration of war, one that was not coordinated with our allies, including the Iraqi’s whose territory it took place in, nor approved by congress. If pulling out of the Nuclear Deal and applying a pressure campaign had set up a game of chicken as to who would provoke war first, Donald Trump flinched, or more accurately spasmed. Let’s not even get into the reports of how this order went down, suffice it to say it was chaotic in execution and completely unexpected by the pentagon and military officials. Just launching the attack itself changes the entire state of international affairs to be a more dangerous one, where America stands alone.
Let’s give fair due to the reasoning behind this attack. Tensions have been rising in the region with an attack that killed an American contractor, and protests at the US embassy in Baghdad that became violent. Those events were certainly escalations, but manageable ones that did not weaken the US position in Iraq or Iran. And it is true that Soleimani had coordinated several proxy wars that are responsible for the deaths of thousands in Syria and throughout the world. He was certainly working to undermine the US in the region, just as the US and Russia have done to each other for generations. He was also one of the main forces winning the fight against ISIS. If we say that he was assassinated because he was an evil man, there or many evil leaders in the world that we haven’t taken out, mainly because it would set off war. The idea that this was a preemptive strike to prevent a war is as preposterous as the justification for going into Iraq to prevent them from attacking the US. Except then there was at least congressional approval. In this case there was not even congressional notification. And most likely it will have the same effect. The US will end up in another decades long war in the Middle East, based on little to no evidence, costing thousands of American and Iranian and Iraqi lives, resulting in war crimes and destabilized economies and cultural atrocities. That is precisely what the President is threatening over Twitter at this moment. The difference is this time we will not have the foreign support we did in Iraq, and we will be going against a government that is more consolidated with a military force four times the size. It will most likely not be World War III, but it will be magnitudes worse than any Middle East war we have engaged in yet.
This leaves us, the American people and the international community alike asking why. Why has the President taking this dangerous action with far-reaching consequences now, when no other president had. The simplest answer would be that he had no idea how dangerous and consequential was, and in fact probably didn’t have a clear understanding as to who Soleimani or the Quds forces was. There’s evidence for that, but let’s not speculate on his mental fitness. That is for congress to do. An equally popular and unpopular theory is circulating that this action was a distraction from impeachment proceedings. That is not ridiculous to think, as during Bill Clinton’s impeachment a military offensive was launched in Iraq, to the effect of consolidating more support. However Trump know he was never going to be removed by the Republican congress, and by all accounts thought impeachment would work for him in the 2020 election. While the numbers aren’t exactly in, it’s a fair bet to say this assassination is for more unpopular than impeachment itself. Perhaps the President thought being on the brink of war would help him win reelection as well. That follows with common knowledge that voters usually don’t vote out a president during a war, but in an unpopular war and with an unpopular president that may not be the case.
Trump may very well believe this war will help him win a second term. But by taking this action he also takes much more decisive, long-lasting steps toward something else, something more out of reach than a second term but not totally out of the realm of possibility. It is something than Trump himself has shown every sign of actually wanting, a dictatorship. Not necessarily a traditional dictatorship, but one within our democratic framework. He has heaped praise on strong-man dictators like Robert Duterte and Vladmir Putin, leaders characterized by their use of military force to achieve foreign dominance and corruption to maintain power. At every opportunity to undermine democratic ideals he has, discounting American votes, threatening to deny the results of an election, and abusing his position to get dirt on political rivals. More than a few times he has “joked” about a third term. With this move Trump has completely undermined the constitutional powers of congress to declare or approve acts of war, further reaching for the powers of an imperial presidency. And because half of congress are compelled to praise his every action, he will face no consequences for it. Even if Trump is not president in one or four years, this is a dangerous precedent to set for future presidencies courting military action. George W. Bush had to convince both houses of congress and the American people before starting a terrible, costly war. Donald Trump has just stumbled into one, and the rest of us will face the consequences.
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